Как и когда Tesla и её последователи победят смог мегаполисов и цены на нефть

Tesla

Мы находимся у самых истоков эволюции (или революции) в автоиндустрии: через 20-30 лет электрокары в развитых странах подвинут бензиновые авто, как когда-то DVD подвинул VHS. А кое-где (в Норвегии, например) это уже происходит прямо сейчас.

С одной стороны, этот текст не совсем в формате Зожника, но с другой как раз об оздоровлении мегаполисов, которое произойдет на нашем с вами веку. Мы не смогли удержаться, чтобы не рассказать вам о неизбежных грядущих переменах к лучшему.

В цивилизованном обществе всё больше людей берут на себя лично ответственность не только за своё здоровье, но и за окружающую среду — как минимум не выбрасывают мусор из своего авто и вообще стараются минимизировать свой личный вред для планеты. Таких людей довольно много в Европе или США. Вообще, такое самосознание идёт в ногу с образованием и достатком.

В Силиконовой долине, насчитывающей сотни тысяч долларовых миллионеров очень сложно увидеть Porsche Cayenne или BMW X6, водителей таких автомобилей там считают «лохами». Зато модно ездить на «Тесле» — автомобиле, который доказывает на практике, что электромобили в относительно ближайшем будущем вытеснят своих бензиновых предшественников как когда-то DVD вытеснил VHS.

тесла-1

Разбор моно- и стереотипов

Но для начала разберемся с тем, что же такое «Тесла». Это важно для тех, кто мало знает, чего добился создатель компании Элон Маск и Ко с тех пор как полностью собственный автомобиль компании Tesla Model S был впервые представлен в 2009 году.
Развеем стереотипы и дадим представление о Тесле в виде вопросов и ответов.

tesla-budet-proizvodit-elektrokary-v-evrope-i-prodavat-model-s-v-kitae-8

Запас хода

Базовая модель Model S 60 (с батареей 60кВт/ч) проедет на одной подзарядке 335 километров, а у модели 85 и P85 запас хода 426 километров. Это меньше, чем у бензиновых автомобилей, но вполне достаточно для ежедневного передвижения по городу. Больший путь за день преодолевается разве что такси или при путешествии на дальние расстояния, когда приходится ехать весь день.

Скорость и динамика

Версия Model S 60 разгоняется до сотни за 5,9 секунды, модель P85 — за 4,2 секунды. Максимальная скорость, соответственно, 193 и 210 км/ч.

На этом видео Tesla тягается с BMW M5 и выигрывает:

Заправка/зарядка

До того, как начать активные продажи Tesla, компания построила сеть БЕСПЛАТНЫХ автозаправочных (автозаряжающих) станций по всей стране, чтобы владельцы Теслы могли беспрепятственно путешествовать по всей стране. По данным на январь в США их было 65. Аналогичная стратегия и на других рынках.

Этот обелиск обозначает станцию бесплатной зарядки Tesla:

Tesla_Obelisk_(2)

Кроме того, заряжать «Теслу» можно у себя в гараже от обычной домашней розетки.
За 20 минут можно подзарядить 85-ю модель наполовину и получить дополнительно 240 км пробега, 30-минутной зарядки хватит на 320 км. Если торопитесь, робот заменит вашу батарею на полностью заряженную за 2 минуты и $80.
Важная деталь: электричество для зарядки на станциях берётся из солнечной энергии.

Калифорния, зарядка автомобилей Тесла на парковке:

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Стоимость заправки/зарядки

Зарядка на станциях абсолютно бесплатная. Владельцам «Теслы» можно больше никогда не платить за топливо.

Зарядка же от домашней сети до полной зарядки по российским тарифам будет стоить дешевле 100 рублей.

UPD по зарядке: недоверчивые читатели обвинили в неточности оценки стоимости зарядки от домашней сети. Исправляемся:

Стоимость зарядки Model S обходится в США в 19 рублей на 100 км пробега (расчет основан а стоимость 1 кВт*часа электроэнергии в Калифорнии в 4 рубля), в Европе (при средней цене за квт/ч 6,2 рубля) — 30 рублей за 100 км пробега.

 

Гарантия на батарею

На батарею в Model S 60 дают гарантию 8 лет и до 200 тысяч км, на более топовые модели — 8 лет без ограничения пробега.

Цена

Базовая Tesla Model S 60 стоит в США $69 900, при этом государство вам ещё компенсируют часть суммы за ваше стремление к экологичности. В разных штатах США сумма разная: в Калифорнии, к примеру из бюджета вам достанется $2500, плюс вам дадут льготы на налоги. В итоге за базу в США вы заплатите чуть более $65 тысяч. Топовая версия «P85» с бонусами от правительства обойдется примерно в $85 тысяч. Пока дороговато для массового потребления.

Базовые цены на 3 комплектации Tesla Model X в США:

тесла_технические_характеристики

Кстати, в России в этом году отменили пошлину на электромобили, так что можно закупаться «Теслами».

Продажи электрокаров в мире

В общем, экологичный, мощный, быстрый автомобиль, да ещё и с бесплатным топливом, а также моральными и финансовыми бонусами, обречен на успех. Пока этот автомобиль активно освоил топовый сегмент, компания разумно снимает сливки и двигается в более низкие ценовые сегменты.

Tesla Motors готовят модель, называющуюся пока BlueStar. Это будет автомобиль размера Audi A4 или Mercedes-Benz C-Class со стартовой ценой от $30 тысяч. Поставки покупателям планируют начать в 2017 году. И тогда объёмы продаж будут уже совсем другими.
Да и единственный недостаток электрокара — пробег на одной зарядке — обещают увеличить до 400 миль (640 км), а также начать выпускать SUV и минивэны.

Глава Tesla Motors Элон Маск представляет Model X в Детройте в 2012 году:

800px-Tesla_Model_X_Geneva_2012

Но и уже сейчас продажи электрокаров растут как грибы. В 2013-м было продано 22 477 автомобилей Tesla Model S, что для такого дорогого авто отличный результат. Tesla быстро и уверенно стала номером один в сегменте топовых автомобилей, уверенно обогнав бывшего лидера Mersedes-Benz S-Class (13,3 тысячи в 2013 году).

В 2013-м выручка Tesla Motors уже составила около $2 млрд. По сравнению с мировыми лидерами типа Toyota ($216 млрд) или GM ($156 млрд) пока немного, но рост фантастический: в 5 раз за год.

В этом году планируется продать 35 тысяч автомобилей Tesla. А, к примеру, в Норвегии творится настоящее сумасшествие. В этом марте 11% всех новых автомобилей, проданных в этой богатой скандинавской стране, были Tesla Model S, уверенно заняв первое место на рынке.

В пятимиллионной Норвегии в марте каждый день регистрировали покупку 70 автомобилей марки Tesla, последний раз такой ажиотаж там был в 1986 году с Ford Sierra. Всё дело в том, что на электромобили в Норвегии установлена нулевая шкала налога (обычно 100% от евроцены), им предоставлено право бесплатной парковки и въезда в городскую черту, а также право проезда по полосе общественного транспорта. При этом, зарядка машины (за полчаса на 80%) в сети Tesla осуществляется бесплатно, а цена автомобиля премиум-класса с батареей 60 kWh немногим выше, чем у нового Nissan Quashqai c ручной коробкой и дизелем 1.6.

Когда электромобили заменят бензиновые

Кроме, собственно, «Теслы» электрокарами, естественно, уже занимаются самые дальновидные автоконцерны, а скоро займутся абсолютно все. Например, электрокаров Nissan Leaf продано более 55 тысяч штук.

201104181154_nissan_leaf

Всего же в мире пока продано лишь жалкие 400 тысяч автомобилей на электродвигателях с батарейками, из которых доля «Теслы» не такая уж большая. Для сравнения: общее количество автомобилей в мире превысило 1 млрд. То есть, электрокары сейчас составляют примерно 0,04% от общего количества авто.

А это значит, что мы с вами находимся в самом начале явления, которое, очевидно, захватит рынок, наполненный сейчас устаревающей технологией — бензиновым двигателем. Всего лишь год назад электрокаров было 180 тысяч, а по итогам 2011-го было продано всего 45 тысяч.

Форсайт о развитии электромобилей до 2020 года опубликован в этом отчёте. Согласно этому исследованию всего лишь через 6 лет, к 2020 году, на дорогах мира будет кататься уже в 50 раз больше электрокаров, чем сейчас — около 20 млн. (с учетом гибридных автомобилей), или 2% от мирового объёма автомобилей.

Этому будет способствовать и стремительное развитие технологий электрокаростроения, темп которых недоступен «бензиновым» технологиям.

Вот, к примеру, прогноз по снижению стоимости батарей для авто (долларов за кВт/ч):

стоимость батарей

 

Как это повлияет на цены на нефть

Сегодня около половины всего объёма добываемой нефти сжигается в автомобильных двигателях:

структура потребления нефти

Подумайте, что будет с ценой на нефть при сохранении её добычи, когда двигатели внутреннего сгорания начнут массово заменять на электродвигатели, которым нефть не нужна?

Напоминаем, что процесс только начался, и всё самое интересное произойдет в ближайшие годы.

Очевидно, что лет через 20-30 странам, экономика которых построена на нефти, придётся несладко. И мы сейчас говорим не про ОАЭ: доля нефтегазовых доходов у них целенаправленно снижалась и сейчас всего 7%, а про Россию, где нефтегазовые доходы составляют около трети государственного бюджета.

Здоровое будущее

Очевидно, что при подавляющем большинстве преимуществ электрокары сомнут жалкие барьеры в виде: высокой цены, недостатка сети электрозаправок (в зависимости от региона, в США или Норвегии сети уже есть и повсеместное их появление лишь вопрос времени), производстве, не успевающем за ростом спроса.

Мы полагаем, что следующие десятилетия неминуемо станут триумфом распространения электрокаров во всем мире. И в перспективе 20-30 лет авто на батарейках займут главенствующее положение на дорогах благодаря дешевизне и экологичности использования, на две головы превышающей бензиновые технологии.

К примеру, в этой таблице показана роль транспортной системы в уменьшении выброса CO2:

эмиссии

Мы уверены, что застанем современные города, полные автомобилей с электродвигателями, в которых хорошо дышать и не надо платить за бензин.

А пока, если ваш автомобиль паркуется недалеко от розетки, можете купить себе «Теслу» прямо сейчас. Полную версию P85 возят в Россию под заказ примерно за 4,5-5 млн рублей. Но это лишь временное явление, наблюдаемое на периферии.

Добро пожаловать в будущее.

 

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Как и когда Tesla и её последователи победят смог мегаполисов и цены на нефть: 142 комментария

  1. Антон

    «А в России кроме затрат на доставку надо будет оплатить еще и пошлину в размере 48% стоимости каталожной цены.»

    Неправда, с января или февраля временно отменили вообще пошлины на электромобили

  2. deleske

    Спасибо! Наши данные устарели — вносим изменения!

  3. Алексей Кузнецов

    «Подумайте, что будет с ценой на нефть при сохранении её добычи, когда двигатели внутреннего сгорания начнут массово заменять на электродвигатели, которым нефть не нужна?» Сомнительно. Не везде на планете Земля достаточно солнечной энергии для зарядки авто. В условиях Сибири отказ от сжигания чего бы то ни было маловероятен. Хочется верить, что ущерб экологии от производства и (!) утилизации электромобилей (и кстати солнечных панелей для производства электричества) ниже ущерба от бензиновых, но так ли это на самом деле?

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